• A Trimodal Theory of Decision Making. Researchers in many areas of decision making have concentrated on narrow slices of the decision making domain, e.g., choice in classical decision theory or recognition in naturalistic research. We attempt to distill a more accurate and comprehensive conception of decision making from recent empirical research and theory, to elucidate some of its normative and descriptive features, and to draw conclusions for the cognitive engineering of decision aids.

  The following can be downloaded:

  Revised draft submitted for publication: Cohen, M. S., & Lipshitz, Raanan (2011). Three Roads to Commitment: A Trimodal Theory of Decision Making. Arlington, VA: Perceptronics Solutions. Submitted for publication.e

  Presentation at 10th International Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making, Orlando, FL, June, 2011: Cohen, M. S., & Lipshitz, Raanan (2011). Three Roads to Commitment: An Integrative Framework for Decision Making. e

• Time and Uncertainty in Naturalistic Decision Making. This chapter focuses on a critical issue in NDM research: experts’ management of the time they take to gather information and verify assessments and decisions. We critique NDM theories that equate expertise entirely with substantive knowledge, trivilizing the issue of time management. Satisfactory management of time for deliberation requires not only substantive domain knowledge but also the acquisition of strategic thinking skill. We cite both conceptual arguments and experimental evidence with commercial airline pilots for this hypothesis, and we present a model of a relatively automatic process for allocating time baseed on animal foraging. The foraging for surprise model predicts that thinking strategies will improve as decision makers spend varying amounts of time deliberating about tasks that vary in known uncertainty, novelty, and cost of delay. We contrast this model with a "stopping rule" proposal that imples fixed, pre-existing knowledge structures (Klein, et al.'s Data-Frame theory). We sketch some implications for training and decision aiding from an NDM perspective.

  The following can be downloaded:

  Cohen, M. S. (2011). Knowns, Known Unknowns, and Unknown Unknows: Time and Uncertainty in Naturalistic Decision Making. In K. Mosier and U. Fischer (Eds.), Knowledge management: Expert performance in complex situations e

• Dialogue and Critical Thinking. Critical thinking is a purposive dialogue with oneself or others, about alternative possibilities. Critical thinking usually takes place in a practical context, where its purpose is to improve situation understanding or decisionmaking -- by proposing, critiquing, evaluating, and improving alternative hypotheses, interpretations of evidence, predicted outcomes, goals, and courses of action. Dialogue theory enables us to identify dialogue roles and phases, and moves and constraints associated with each, that characterize successful critical thinking dialogue, and which enable participants to achieve their purposes within the time available.

  The following can be downloaded:

  FINAL VERSION of a chapter that gives the best description of the theory and how it has been applied to training team critical thinking. Cohen, M. S. et al. (2006). Dialogue as Medium (and Message) for Training Critical Thinking. In R. Hoffman (Ed.), Expertise Out of Context. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.

• Dialogue and Leadership. Leadership skills are displayed in the way individuals communicate with one another in the context of a collaborative practical activity. An integration of cognitive and communicative concepts leads to a conceptualization of leadership as the orchestration and improvisation of appropriate dialogues to achieve group objectives. Leaders must learn to recognize the types of dialogue that are appropriate to different situations and understand how to recognize and implement the associated expectations and roles. They must also acquire skills for overcoming obstacles to successful dialogue and for managing the flow of conversation without violating trust.

  A chapter about this approach to leadership skill: Cohen, M. S. (2004). Leadership as the orchestration and improvisation of dialogue: Cognitive and communicative skills in conversations among leaders and subordinates. In D. V. Day, S. J. Zaccaro, & S. M. Halpin (Eds.), Leader development for tranforming organizations: Growing leaders for tomorrow (pp. 177-208). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.

• Naturalistic Decision Making and Critical Thinking. We have learned from studies of proficient real-world decision makers that they are distinguished by (1) their recognitional skills -- the ability to recognize familiar patterns and to rapidly retrieve appropriate expectations, goals, and responses -- and (2) by their ability to apply their experience in unfamiliar, novel, or anomalous situations, which do not match previous patterns. Under the latter conditions, recognition needs to be supplemented by metacognitive processes that monitor the products of recognition and, when problems are found, adopt strategies to resolve them. CTI's Recognition / Metacognition model provides a systematic and precise account of processes that decision makers use to understand and plan in such novel and uncertain situations.

  Here are some basic readings about this model and its applications:

Introduces, motivates, and illustrates the model: Cohen, M. S., Freeman, J. T. and Wolf, S. (1996). Meta-recognition in time-stressed decision making: Recognizing, critiquing, and correcting. Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society (38,2), pp. 206-219.

More detailed description of the model, more examples, and its application to individual training: Cohen, M.S., Freeman, J.T. and Thompson, B.B. (1998). Critical Thinking Skills in Tactical Decision Making: A Model and A Training Method. (Canon-Bowers, J. and E. Salas, eds.), Decision-Making Under Stress: Implications for Training & Simulation. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association Publications.

Application of the model to team training for appropriate initiative: Cohen, M. S., & Thompson, B. B. (2001). Training teams to take initiative: Critical thinking in novel situations. In E. Salas (Ed.), Advances in Cognitive Engineering and Human Performance Research (1, pp. 251-291). Amsterdam: JAI.

Results of testing the effectiveness of training for initiative. Cohen, M. S., & Adelman, L. (2002). Training Critical Thinking to Enhance Battlefield Initiative. In anonymous (Ed.), Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society's 46th Annual Meeting. Human Factors & Ergonomics Society. .

• Mental Models and Critical Thinking. According to the Recognition / Metacognition model, effective decision makers monitor their own evolving mental models. When they find different types of uncertainty (e.g., gaps, conflicts, or unreliable assumptions), they draw from a repertoire of strategies for addressing that type of uncertainty. Refinement, modification, or replacement of mental models is therefore problem-driven, subject to regulation by the stakes of the problem and the time available. (CTI received recognition for its mental models work by being named of the five best Small Business Innovative Research projects in 1999.)

Research on mental models used in battlefield decision making, especially those pertaining to intent : Cohen, M., Thompson, B.B., Adelman, L., Bresnick, T.A., Tolcott, M.A., & Freeman, J.T. (1995). Rapid capturing of battlefield mental models. Arlington, VA: Cognitive Technologies, Inc..

• Simulating Critical Thinking. A computer-based implementation of the Recognition / Metacognition model has been developed . This work represents a synthesis of our model with work on rapid parallel inference by Dr. Lokendra Shastri of the International Computer Science Institute, affiliated with the University of California at Berkeley. The tool, called Shruti, has two levels: (1) It performs rapid recognitional inferences and planning within a large expert belief network, utilizing temporal synchrony to maintain dynamic object binding and support complex relational reasoning.(2) It executes a metacognitive control process that monitors recognitional results for different types of uncertainty and shifts attention within active memory to activate new long-term knowledge and adjust assumptions. A simulation of a tactical Army battlefield scenario, as well as a Navy tactical scenario, has been implemented in this system, and are suitable for use in training systems and decision aids.

Describes a computer simulation of the interaction between recognitional and metacognitive processes in decision making: Cohen, M. S., Thompson, B. B., Adelman, L., Bresnick, T. A., Shastri, L., & Riedel, S. (2000). Training Critical Thinking for the Battlefield: Volume III: Modeling and Simulation of Battlefield Critical Thinking. Arlington, VA: Cognitive Technologies, Inc.

• Decision Aids, Mental Models, and Critical Thinking. CTI has developed several decision aid prototypes based on the Recognition / Metacognition model. All these aids enable users both to (1) view and manipulate graphical representations of mental models, and (2) annotate or revise the models to highlight problems and solutions discovered in critical thinking. In addition, some of the systems also support collaborative critiquing and improving of mental models, as well as real-time retrieval of information that is relevant to improving or correcting the model under construction..

A decision aid for time-stressed decision making based on cognitive theory: Cohen M.S., Freeman, J.T., & Thompson, B.T. (1997). Integrated critical thinking training and decision support for tactical anti-air warfare. In 3d International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium Proceedings.

CTI has studied the way users interact with advanced decision aiding systems and has developed methods for adapting decision aid displays and reasoning strategies to human cognitive strengths and weaknesses.

A cognitive framework for the design of adaptive decision aids, applied to Automated Target Recognition: Cohen, M., & Tolcott, M.A. (1992). A cognitive basis for automated target recognition interface design. Arlington, VA: Cognitive Technologies, Inc. Experiments on ATR design conducted within the framework: Cohen, M., Thompson, B.B., Freeman, J. T. (1997). Cognitive Aspects of Automated Target Recognition Interface Design: An Experimental Analysis. Arlington, VA: Cognitive Technologies, Inc..

CTI developed a decision analytic theory of trust in decision aids that conceptualizes it as a situation-specific expectation of system performance, over different time periods and conditional on different phases and circumstances of use. The model makes predictions about the dynamic evolution of trust and the appropriateness of different user interaction strategies (e.g., when monitoring is or is not appropriate). We have developed training for critical thinking by decision aid users based on the model.

The situation-specific trust model and its implications for critical thinking training: Cohen, M., Parasuraman, R., & Freeman, J.T. (1998). Trust in Decision Aids: What Is It and How Can It Be Improved? Proceedings of the Command and Control Research & Technology Symposium. Monterey.